My predictions for 2022
Last year, as I have every year since 2011, I made some predictions for the coming year. As always some were serious and some were... well, not quite so serious. I did get quite a lot right, which has inspired me to have yet another go at looking into the future.
Before I consider what may happen in the year ahead, let’s
take a look at what I got right for 2021.
Firstly, I talked of opportunities for the Lib Dems as local elections and
by-elections returned after Covid restrictions were lifted. That was a pretty
good call, with the party making net gains of 10 seats at local level and two
stunning by-election victories in Cheshire & Amersham and North Shropshire.
Secondly, I also predicted the Conservatives would be “plunged into new crises of their own making” and that backbench MPs would turn on their leader. I think we are seeing that materialising, albeit a little later than I thought we would.
I also thought that Mark Drakeford and Welsh Labour would have a good year, that there would be a pro-independence majority in Holyrood, that Indyref 2 would not happen in 2021and that the Biden administration would be competent without proving particularly radical. And I was right in another respect – Labour still doesn’t have an answer to “the Scottish question”.
My thoughts on how the respective administrations would handle the Covid-19 crisis proved broadly correct, although admittedly I didn’t have to be Nostradamus to get that right. I think my best prediction was in regards to Scotland’s participation in the European Championships: “in a group containing England, Croatia and the Czech Republic, they could score a goal...” They did and what a cracker! I also was right that Rangers would win the league title comfortably and that Hamilton Accies would be relegated – and also in my projection that Brechin City would be replaced in League Two by Kelty Hearts.
I foresaw Team GB winning more than 20 gold medals at the Olympics, Ladbaby securing a fourth successive Christmas number 1 and the Sussexes announcing that they are expecting a second child.
But surely my most accurate prediction was this: “The Duchess of Sussex will give a Princess Diana style interview during which she reveals all kinds of ‘secrets’ about the Royal Family.” I didn’t realise it would be with Oprah, but I think this shows my crystal ball is in fine working order. Clearly it’s working a lot better than Alex Cole-Hamilton’s, whose predictions were somewhat wide of the mark...
However, let’s not suggest that all of my predictions were so uncannily accurate. I also suggested the Lib Dems would make gains at the Holyrood elections (we actually lost further ground). I thought Labour would overtake the Conservatives as the second largest party at Holyrood, and that didn’t materialise either. Neither did the SNP majority I forecast become reality.
My prediction for the German elections was woefully wrong, although I was broadly correct when I foresaw the German Greens welcoming new opportunities in government.
So, what do I see happening in 2022?
POLITICS
The Liberal Democrats
2022 will be the year of “anyone but the Tories” type by-elections. This will help the Lib Dems, who will continue to defy odds in by-elections in Conservative-held seats.
The party will hold its own in the Scottish local elections, but will do significantly better in England where Liberal Democrats will gain control of a couple of councils.
Alex Cole-Hamilton will continue Willie Rennie’s tradition of unusual photo shoots and videos with farm animals.
It will become increasingly clear to most people that the Liberal Democrats’ improved electoral performances are in spite of, rather than because of, the party’s policy positions - especially in relation to Brexit. The lesson that success comes from vociferously opposing the Conservatives will be absorbed into campaigning strategy but won’t really apply to Scotland, where antipathy towards the SNP will remain the priority.
There will be a lot of excitement as the Liberal Democrats gather for the first non-virtual conference since 2019. Members will be delighted to meet up as they debate various progressive policy motions and discuss standing orders. Glee Club will be even more raucous than usual.
The Conservative
Party
Things can, and will, get worse for Prime Minister Boris Johnson. His survival depends on his ability to continue to appease his backbenchers, but eventually their patience will run out. Poor results in the May local elections, further by-election defeats, dismal handling of the Covid situation and dissatisfaction with the Brexit deal will combine to bring about Johnson’s downfall.
 |
There will be a number of resignations by Conservative MPs unhappy with Boris Johnson. They will continue to serve as independent backbenchers and will be far more effective in embarrassing the government than anyone in the Labour Party.
With the Conservatives plummeting in the polls, party members will elect Liz Truss as the new party leader. Truss will defeat Rishi Sunak surprisingly comfortably. Unfortunately, she will lack both the understanding and creativity to turn her party’s fortunes around and the Tories will finish the year fifteen points behind Labour in the polls and with the ERG publicly proposing the launch of a new “patriotic” party.
In a bizarre attempt to keep the party united, new PM Truss will appoint a prominent pro-Brexit MP as the new Chancellor. Having the chance to appoint someone with real experience, Truss will instead give the job to Steve Barclay. Sunak will be offered a lesser role, which he will diplomatically decline while he bides his time in the slow lane.
In Scotland, Douglas Ross will make desperate and unsuccessful attempts to distance himself from his colleagues at Westminster. His mission to disassociate himself from sleaze will not be helped when a Scottish Conservative MP gets into trouble after breaking lobbying rules.
The Labour Party
Things are starting to look up for Labour and they will benefit from the self-created mess the Conservatives find themselves in. Keir Starmer, cautious and never entirely convincing, will be transformed into a credible Prime Minister in waiting – even if only because of Tory ineptitude and sleaze. His appeal to the country will begin to broaden as the Tories descend into internecine strife.
Labour will do well in the May local elections – at least in England and Wales. The party will fare less well in Scotland, where the SNP will continue to dominate, but Labour’s performance north of the border will give reasons for cautious optimism.
Labour’s willingness to adopt a pluralistic understanding – but no formal arrangements – with the Greens and Liberal Democrats will yield dividends when Starmer’s party pull off an unlikely by-election success.
Labour will earn economic credibility during 2022, aided by the fact that Johnson’s Brexit deal is now obviously failing Britain. Rachel Reeves will seem like a safe pair of hands, at least in comparison with Truss’s new Chancellor.
Anas Sarwar will find the going tough, not least because Labour will still not find a credible answer to the question of Scotland’s future. He will, however, be stronger on social and economic matters and his approach to politics will win him far more friends than Douglas Ross’s will for the Scottish Tories.
Labour’s own divisions and internal conflict will not cease, but the media will be so pre-occupied with the Conservatives’ difficulties that they will pale into insignificance by comparison. This will allow the party leadership to present Labour as united and focused on “the important issues”.
Labour and Jeremy Corbyn will come to an understanding and the whip will be restored when the former leader agrees to issue a carefully worded statement. In spite of the reinstatement, Corbyn will remain on the sidelines – adored by his supporters, ignored by most.
The Scottish National
Party
It will be a year of electoral successes for the SNP. The party will do incredibly well in local elections, and will comfortably regain a Westminster seat from the Tories following a by-election. Nicola Sturgeon’s approval rating will remain consistent, aided by the perception that she’s managed the Covid situation well – or, at least, better than Boris Johnson.
That said, the SNP will largely be the beneficiaries of weak opposition. As we move out of the Covid crisis (and we will) the question of Indyref 2 will again come to the fore. Nationalists, both within and outwith the SNP, will be agitating for some movement on this, with divisions becoming apparent between those who favour an early referendum and those who prefer to take a longer-term approach.
Economic recovery will not be immediate and Kate Forbes will face some tough questions, both in relation to the economic case for independence and more immediate concerns. This will have limited impact on the SNP’s support, not least as Douglas Ross lacks any coherent alternative while Anas Sarwar will struggle to find too many areas of policy divergence.
Greens
The Scottish Greens will benefit from the uncertainty and challenging situation, gaining credit for elements of the Budget, for keeping the SNP focused on “Scotland’s interests” and for the government’s environmental conscience. Patrick Harvie’s party will show that it understands how to reap rewards from being a minor partner in coalition.
The Greens in England and Wales will have an excellent year, making record gains in the local elections.
International
It will become increasingly clear in 2022 that no-one has any idea how to handle Russia and China.
Hungary’s parliamentary election will be the closest for 16 years, with the opposition parties finally uniting behind Péter Márki-Zay. The co-operation between the main parties will result in a narrow victory for them, an outcome that incumbent Viktor Orbán will claim is invalid and due to electoral fraud. It will matter little and, after some unedifying legal wrangling, Márki-Zay will become Prime Minister. Parties in the UK will learn nothing from the Hungarian opposition parties’ successful collaboration.
There will also be change – of a sort – in the Philippines, where “Bongbong” Marcos, son of former dictator Ferdinand Marcos, will emerge victorious from a crowded field. Marcos has already faced seven petitions to either cancel his candidacy or disqualify him; the fact he will win comfortably will despite lacking a coherent policy platform will serve as a reminder that extreme situations, such as a pandemic, can help make impoverished people nostalgic for autocracy.
In the US, the Republican Party will fail to win a majority in the Senate. The disunity in the increasingly inward-looking GOP, not helped by Donald Trump being very much in the background, will result in a failure to seize opportunities.
Emmanuel Macron will regain the French presidency – but by the narrowest of margins against Valérie Pécresse of Les Républicains. It will be a poor election for the traditional left-wing parties and also for Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement national (formerly Font national), who were flying high in the polls in early 2021. Le Pen will finish in a distant fourth place, suggesting that the project to rebrand and detoxify the NF has some way to go.
COVID-19
I don’t want to make predictions about Covid-19. There remains such uncertainty and I don’t think it is helpful for non-scientific minds to speculate publicly. What does seem apparent, however, is that – politically speaking – we’re reaching the point at which governments are going to have to justify their actions and their handling of the pandemic. Expect the Westminster government to seek to avoid an official inquiry, which will only serve to raise further questions and increase the pressure on the beleaguered Prime Minister.
FOOTBALL
Rangers will win the Scottish Premiership title with four games remaining. Celtic will be looking for a new manager before the new season starts. St Johnstone, Scottish Cup winners in May 2021, will be relegated and replaced by Arbroath - who will win the Championship surprisingly comfortably. Cowdenbeath’s 117-year membership of the league will be ended when, needing three points to avoid the play-offs, The Blue Brazil will go down 3-0 to Albion Rovers. Cowdenbeath will then be narrowly defeated in the play-offs by last year’s losers, Brechin City.
Manchester City will once again win the English Premiership. Arsenal, who will finish in an impressive fourth place, will lift the FA Cup. Burnley, Watford and Norwich City will be relegated, with the latter failing to score in their final ten games. Newcastle will escape demotion on the final day, thanks to a disputed penalty against Burnley. Bournemouth, Fulham and Nottingham Forest will return to the Premiership.
ELSEWHERE
The Church of Scotland’s “overture” in relation to solemnising same-sex marriages has just been approved by a majority of the Presbyteries, and will be voted on at General Assembly. Commissioners will agree to permit churches to conduct same-sex weddings. A few clergy and congregations, disgusted at being unable to enforce their own view onto everyone else, will leave and join the Free Church of Scotland, the United Free Church of Scotland, the Associated Presbyterian Church or, in some cases, a new “free” denomination (i.e. “free” of LGBT+ people). Few others will notice, or even care too much.
The Church of England on the other hand... och, never mind. It’s too depressing.
The West Indies will defeat England 2-1 in the forthcoming Test Series, winning the inaugural Richards-Botham Trophy. Richards will say what an honour it is to have his name on the prize, and will praise the efforts of both teams for playing “great, attacking cricket”. Botham will use an interview with Sky Sports to offer his view that the West Indies are rubbish, England are an embarrassment and that the selectors should go. He’ll also make some comments about snowflakes.
England will also lose another test series, this time to South Africa. Botham will now be joined by Geoff Boycott and even Jonathan Agnew in calling for change. The ECB, still smarting from racism accusations, will decline to say anything other than delivering “business speak” about “the commercial opportunities” offered by The Hundred.
The Qatar World Cup will be a disaster for the host nation – and I’m not just speaking about the predictable early exit for Qatar’s national team. There will be questions raised about the suitability of the grounds and pitches for this level of competition and the wisdom of playing football matches in the high temperatures. More importantly, allegations of corruption will resurface. The gulf nation will come under fire as human rights abuses are exposed and the country’s approach to LGBT+ people is widely attacked internationally. When the captains of two of the “big” teams openly criticise Qatar’s government at a press conference after mistreatment of some LGBT+ fans, Qatar will respond by defending its approach which, inevitably, only worsens the situation.
The tournament will end with Brazil winning their sixth World Cup and FIFA apologising for awarding Qatar the competition in the first instance.
Prince Andrew will come under increased pressure to answer questions about sex abuse and his associations with Jeffrey Epstein. Unfortunately, none of the answers will be provided in a courtroom.
IN LIGHTER VEIN
Priti Patel will propose constructing an electric fence around Britain's coastline to keep out immigrants, asylum seekers and “nasty French people”.
The Eurovision Song contest will be won by a Belgian band mocking Brexit. Mark Francois will appear on LDC immediately afterwards, telling Nick Ferrari he is “appalled” at “the disrespect shown to this great nation” and will call for the United Kingdom to withdraw from the event.
The National newspaper will be unsure how to respond when Alex Cole-Hamilton says something reasonably complimentary about the First Minister.
Nigel Farage will announce his retirement from politics only to call a press conference a day later to confirm the creation of a new party, Britain’s Best.
The Commonwealth Games will be a great success for Birmingham – and all of the UK teams taking part will exceed expectations. (Apart from England’s men’s cricket team of course, who will somehow manage to lose all of their group matches.)
The pound’s value will diminish further and the British economy will struggle on account of several factors from Brexit to Covid. Fortunately, the government spokesperson will be able to assure party conference that “Liz Truss’s trade deals with New Zealand and, erm, Tuvalu and... the St George Islands...is that a real place?” will guarantee “a strong economic future for Global Britain”.
After a slump in its value, everyone will be talking about Bitcoin. Finance commentators - and Elon Musk - will demonstrate that they have no more understanding of cryptocurrency than the average person in the street.
Christopher Chope, Andrea Jenkyns and Andrew Bridgen will respond to the economic challenges by calling for “a return to pounds, shillings and pence”, arguing that old money will “give us back our identity and ambition”.
In a completely unexpected development, Ed Sheeran will secure top spot in the charts at Christmas with his new single, My Christmas Wish. What will be even more surprising is that the song will actually be quite good. (No, I’m only joking. Ladbaby will take their fifth successive Christmas number 1 with a sausage roll inspired parody of Mistletoe and Wine.)
On 31st December 2022 I will be typing up my
predictions for 2023...
Comments