My predictions for 2021
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| 2021 could contain a few surprises. I'm expecting Scotland to surprise us all in the Euros...they could score a goal! |
On 31st December 2011 I decided to make some predictions for the coming year, the main purpose of which was to show that I had a humourous side. The responses to my attempts at being funny led to my making predictions becoming something of an annual tradition and so, for the tenth consecutive year, I bring you my projections for the coming year. As always, some of these are serious, and some are not quite so serious.
I do sometimes get things right, although my forecasts for 2020 managed to omit the disruption brought about by a global pandemic. Last year I predicted Layla Moran would win the Lib Dem leadership election, gains for the Lib Dems in the English local elections, Rebecca Long-Bailey becoming Labour leader, Boris Johnson securing a deal with the EU, Donald Trump winning a second term as US president, the "grand coalition" being dissolved in Germany, Liverpool winning the league and Team GB doing well in the Olympics. I added that 2020 would be a better year for most of us. I think it's fair to say December 2019 feels a very long time ago now.
While not getting a lot right last year, often my predictions have been much better and so I'm giving it another go before trading in my crystal ball.
The Liberal Democrats
* The only way is up. I know I said that last year, but it remains true. We're virtually invisible in the media. The task to rebuild the party’s fortunes remains difficult, but there will be some opportunities for the party as elections return and the Conservatives are plunged into new crises of their own making.
* The Scottish parliamentary elections, while being much better for pro-independence parties, will see the Lib Dems making some gains - mainly at the expense of Conservatives in regional seats - and we should make some progress, finishing with between 8-10 MSPs. On the negative side, that will still leave us as the fifth party as the Greens will also make gains, but there will be more liberal voices in Holyrood. Moderate successes are still successes...
* This will be the year that the Lib Dems find ways to talk about issues other than the EU. Unfortunately, in Scotland, the political dialogue will remain constricted around the issue of independence, but elsewhere Lib Dems will get back to all those exciting matters that voters care about, such as potholes, litter and petitions against local developments (in Bath this extends to petitions against 5G). Against the backdrop of the pandemic, we might even find chances to be heard on the economy, health and education.
* A problem for the party will be the leader, who is generally seen as "a bit boring". Ed Davey will struggle to inspire either party activists or the wider public, although much of this is down to his near-invisibility in the national media. But at least he's not Nick Clegg. Or Tim Farron.
* However, as the Conservatives implode and turn on their own leader, Lib Dem MPs will use the situation as an opportunity to present themselves as a distinctive alternative to both the incompetent Tories and indecisive Labour, with some success.
* There will be a lot more talk about federalism this year. Huzzah! What will be less positive is that the public won't really understand what federalism is other than an attempt to belatedly offer Scotland something that's not quite as good as independence - which isn't really surprising as no-one advocating it will have any coherent plans that can be "sold" to voters.
* Party members will enjoy the spring conference, which will be held online. This will give us ample opportunity to chat, and argue, among ourselves although the virtual nature of it means few outside the party will take much notice. The conference's zenith will be a motion on international development; the nadir will be the leader's speech, which unfortunately will be plagued by technical issues. But at least we'll get to hear what Ed Davey thinks of Dr Who.
The Conservative Party
* 2020 has been a strange year, but it ended with the Prime Minister crowing triumphantly after agreeing a deal with the EU. That represents an achievement of sorts, but it would be a mistake to believe that the deal brings the Brexit debacle to a close.
* Indeed, 2021 will be the year Johnson's leadership finally unravels (not that it's been particularly convincing to date). With Dominic Cummings out of the picture, criticism will be openly made about the Prime Minister's leadership style, his deal and his handling of the pandemic.
* For a few weeks Conservatives will pretend that this is the deal they've always wanted - but inevitably dissent will show and will snowball into a crisis of confidence in the Prime Minister. Leaving the EU won't resolve the kinds of historic difficulties that David Cameron naively believed would be settled by calling a referendum. The internal divisions and acrimony over Europe won't have gone anywhere, and will re-emerge to undermine Boris Johnson.
* Critically, the UK's economic recovery will be slow in spite of the efforts of Rishi Sunak.
* There will be increased talk about the UK breaking up. Such possibilities are not only being talked about positively by the SNP, Plaid Cymru and similar parties, but will also be discussed by Conservative MPs fearful of the Dissolution of the Union. Many will hold the Prime Minister personally responsible for the worsening situation.
*Carrie Symonds will come under fire from paranoid Tory backbenchers who fear she has too much control over Mr Johnson and his policy direction.
* Against this backdrop of growing dissatisfaction, the Prime Minister will resign later in the year, claiming he needs to spend more time with his family and that he has achieved everything he wanted to. On a positive note, the two main challengers for the vacant role will be BAME people; unfortunately, one of these is Priti Patel. She will beat Rishi Sunak convincingly, mainly because the chancellor is too sensible and forward-thinking to appeal to Conservative Party members. To add insult to injury, he will be replaced as chancellor by Jacob Rees-Mogg.
* The promised Tory revival simply doesn't take place in Scotland. Under Douglas Ross's leadership, the Scottish Conservatives haemorrhage seats and will fall into thrid place behind Labour. Ross will, however, win his seat and continue to serve as leader.
* The promised Tory revival simply doesn't take place in Scotland. Under Douglas Ross's leadership, the Scottish Conservatives haemorrhage seats and will fall into thrid place behind Labour. Ross will, however, win his seat and continue to serve as leader.
The Labour Party
* Labour's fortunes are not going to change quickly, but 2021 is the year in which they will to feel they are fortunate in their opponents. In Scotland, Douglas Ross's failures will help Labour once again become the second largest party in Holyrood in spite of Richard Leonard - albeit a long way behind the SNP. In England, Labour will move ahead in the polls; not, however, because Keir Starmer is universally popular but because the Conservatives are in such disarray. Both Mr Starmer and the Welsh First Minister, Mark Drakeford, will be seen to have had a "good pandemic" (at least by comparison with the Westminster government) and this improves the party's standing with the public.* Unfortunately, Labour's internal tribalism isn't going anywhere either and a section of the party remain committed to destroying Keir Starmer's leadership. Fortunately for him, such efforts are largely focused on creating ridiculous facebook memes and non-existent connections with Jimmy Savile.
* Labour will unsurprisingly do very well in local elections.
* The spectre of antisemitism will gradually disappear. Unfortunately, senior Labour MPs will find themselves accused of transphobia instead.
* The big problem for Labour will remain the party's standing in Scotland. While the party continues to improve under Starmer in England and Wales, it's a very different picture north of the border. Labour doesn't seem to have any answers to "the Scottish question" other than a belated and half-hearted interest in federalism. Unfortunately, they don't seem to know what a federal settlement should look like either...
The Scottish National Party
* Nicola Sturgeon's approval ratings as First Minister will remain fairly strong, mainly due to her being widely seen as having handled the Covid-19 crisis better than Boris Johnson.
* The SNP will win a majority in the Holyrood elections. The presence of a slightly increased Green representation will provide an even larger majority in favour of Scottish independence.
* While "Indyref 2" will dominate political conversation, it will not take place in 2021. Partly, this is due to the simply fact that the election will be postponed until later in the year (as per current legislation) and there will simply not be the time to legislate for it and hold one. The lack of co-operation from Boris Johnson will also be another factor - although his successor will be more amenable to the possibility, mainly because she doesn't understand (or have any interest in) Scotland.
*Expect to see more fall-out from the Salmond saga. This isn't over yet.
International
* Joe Biden will be inaugurated on 20th January - irrespective of the incumbent president's juvenile threats.
* Don't expect any huge reforms from the Biden administration, which aren't possible without Democrats controlling the Senate. Do expect a return of competence, decency, integrity and humanity to the White House.
* The PiS in Poland will have a difficult year. In 2020 they narrowly won an election in which they expected a landslide, while their plans to make virtually all terminations illegal (the so-called Abortion Ban) led to enormous protests - the scale of which had not been seen in Poland since the revolution of 1989. With the opposition now rejuvenated, better organised and with a renewed sense of purpose PiS face some unexpected problems, especially in relation to public confidence in the government.
* It's going to be an interesting year for politics in Germany, wtih Angela Merkel stepping down in September. The CDU will elect Armin Laschet as leader and will emerge as the largest party in the Bundestag, but short of a majority. The SPD's difficulties will continue and they will fall into third place, just behind the Greens who will have their best showing to date. Alternative für Deutschland will do badly, finishing in fifth place behind Die Linke.
The Greens have been in coalition previously and (unlike the Lib Dems) knew how to emerge from governing as a minority party with public confidence intact. They would probably welcome new opportunities in government while the SPD may benefit from some time in opposition - for this reason I suspect a CDU-Green coalition to be the most likely outcome.
* The PiS in Poland will have a difficult year. In 2020 they narrowly won an election in which they expected a landslide, while their plans to make virtually all terminations illegal (the so-called Abortion Ban) led to enormous protests - the scale of which had not been seen in Poland since the revolution of 1989. With the opposition now rejuvenated, better organised and with a renewed sense of purpose PiS face some unexpected problems, especially in relation to public confidence in the government.
* It's going to be an interesting year for politics in Germany, wtih Angela Merkel stepping down in September. The CDU will elect Armin Laschet as leader and will emerge as the largest party in the Bundestag, but short of a majority. The SPD's difficulties will continue and they will fall into third place, just behind the Greens who will have their best showing to date. Alternative für Deutschland will do badly, finishing in fifth place behind Die Linke.
The Greens have been in coalition previously and (unlike the Lib Dems) knew how to emerge from governing as a minority party with public confidence intact. They would probably welcome new opportunities in government while the SPD may benefit from some time in opposition - for this reason I suspect a CDU-Green coalition to be the most likely outcome.
* Nobel peace prize winner turned populist dictator Abiy Ahmed will win the Ethiopian election with over 70% of the vote. These kinds of results are possible when leading opposition parties are absorbed into the party of government and when such opponents as remain are relatively inexperienced and unknown.
COVID-19
* Unfortunately, Covid cases will continue to be high through the winter. We will see things improving by early March, with vaccines becoming available to more and more members of the public.
* Restrictions of various kinds will be in place until the summer.
* In England the government's handling of the pandemic will contribute to a political crisis that will, in turn, bring about the Prime Minister's resignation. In Scotland and Wales, in spite of mistakes made by the respective governments, the public will retain confidence in the First Ministers.
* Of course, while vaccines will play a key role in steering Britain out of its Covid-19 emergency, the vast majority of the world’s adult population will not be vaccinated. We will see a reinforcement of the division between the "haves" and "have nots" as poorer countries are left behind.
COVID-19
* Unfortunately, Covid cases will continue to be high through the winter. We will see things improving by early March, with vaccines becoming available to more and more members of the public.
* Restrictions of various kinds will be in place until the summer.
* In England the government's handling of the pandemic will contribute to a political crisis that will, in turn, bring about the Prime Minister's resignation. In Scotland and Wales, in spite of mistakes made by the respective governments, the public will retain confidence in the First Ministers.
* Of course, while vaccines will play a key role in steering Britain out of its Covid-19 emergency, the vast majority of the world’s adult population will not be vaccinated. We will see a reinforcement of the division between the "haves" and "have nots" as poorer countries are left behind.
* The effects of the pandemic will be seen in the ways in which it has been the catalyst for forging a new world - especially in regards to homeworking, communications, retail, employment and entertainment. Not all of these changes are necessarily positive, but they will be permanent. The national obsessions with Great British Bake Off and Strictly Come Dancing will continue as before.
FOOTBALL
* That football is being played at all seems absurd to me, but there are clearly so many vested interests in ensuring top flight matches are played even if we have to close leisure centres, gyms, and non-elite sporting competitions. I'd be very surprised if the football season is called off or abandoned - players will be travelling from Liverpool to London for a game even if residents of those cities are under tier 59 restrictions, only able to venture outside for their 5-minute monthly exercise while wearing a spacesuit.
* All the same, it has so far been a very interesting season. Liverpool are top of the league in England, but they're not running away with the title as they did last year and there are only ten points between 1st and 11th place. At the beginning of the season I felt that no-one would be able to challenge Liverpool, but I've since changed my mind and purely on the basis of current form I'm going to tip Everton to be the next Premier League champions.
* All the same, it has so far been a very interesting season. Liverpool are top of the league in England, but they're not running away with the title as they did last year and there are only ten points between 1st and 11th place. At the beginning of the season I felt that no-one would be able to challenge Liverpool, but I've since changed my mind and purely on the basis of current form I'm going to tip Everton to be the next Premier League champions.
* Manchester United will win the League Cup while Tottenham Hotspur will lift the FA Cup. (Well, it is a year ending in 1...)
* Rangers will cruise to the Scottish title. Hamilton Academical will be relegated. Morton will again fail to be promoted, missing out on the play-offs by goal difference. Brechin City will finish bottom of Scottish League Two and lose their place in the league to Kelty Hearts.
* VAR will continue to cause controversy. The response of the relevant authorities will be to make the system even more complicated, adopting new rules in relation to when players/managers can request a VAR review. This will only serve to create further difficulties, especially after a match between Crystal Palace and Brighton that will end 7-7 (all goals coming from the penalty spot) and will last for 2 hours and 56 minutes due to all the stoppages incurred.
IN LIGHTER VEIN...
* Rangers will cruise to the Scottish title. Hamilton Academical will be relegated. Morton will again fail to be promoted, missing out on the play-offs by goal difference. Brechin City will finish bottom of Scottish League Two and lose their place in the league to Kelty Hearts.
* VAR will continue to cause controversy. The response of the relevant authorities will be to make the system even more complicated, adopting new rules in relation to when players/managers can request a VAR review. This will only serve to create further difficulties, especially after a match between Crystal Palace and Brighton that will end 7-7 (all goals coming from the penalty spot) and will last for 2 hours and 56 minutes due to all the stoppages incurred.
IN LIGHTER VEIN...
* 2021 will be the year of conspiracy theories. If you think things have been surreal in 2020, just wait until a Conservative MP gives a speech in the Commons alleging the Prime Minister's opponents are Soros-sponsored paedophiles involved in Satanic rituals in Committee Room 5 with Hillary Clinton and the chairman of Huawei. David Icke will stand in a by-election in October on the platform of "justice for victims of 5G", and will demand Boris Johnson, Matt Hancock and Prof Chris Whitty are tried for killing thousands of people by facilitating the expansion of Covid-creating 5G technology. He will finish in fifth place with over 2,000 votes, way ahead of more sensible parties such as the Monster Raving Loony Party, the Eccentric Party of Great Britain and the One Love Party.
* The Duchess of Sussex will give a Princess Diana style interview during which she reveals all kinds of ‘secrets’ about the Royal Family. She will then go on to present an American TV game show, which will prove a spectacular flop. Fortunately this will be forgotten when it is confirmed that the Sussexes are expecting their second child.
* There will be some more light snow in 2021. The Daily Mail and Daily Express will naturally respond with headlines of "Whitemare before Christmas" and "Snowmageddon".
* The Duchess of Sussex will give a Princess Diana style interview during which she reveals all kinds of ‘secrets’ about the Royal Family. She will then go on to present an American TV game show, which will prove a spectacular flop. Fortunately this will be forgotten when it is confirmed that the Sussexes are expecting their second child.
* There will be some more light snow in 2021. The Daily Mail and Daily Express will naturally respond with headlines of "Whitemare before Christmas" and "Snowmageddon".
* BBC's Question Time will be axed following poor viewing figures. The corporation will seek to replace it with a new format that better reflects modern Britain. As a result, QT will be replaced by a "new, fresh" show called Time for Questions, hosted by Keith Lemon.
* Marcus Rashford will team up with Ladbaby as they secure a fourth consecutive Christmas number 1.
* Donald Trump will try to reinvent himself, launching a TV show in which he gives golfing tips to young players who pretend to be impressed by the former president's skills. It doesn't work and won't be able to either improve his financial situation or keep him out of jail.
* Will 2021, and the ousting of President Trump, mean that twitter will become a kinder place? Erm, no.
* Team GB will do well in this year's Olympics. There will be over 20 British golds, mainly in athletics, swimming, boxing, rowing and sailing. We'll also do surprisingly well in equestrian events. Unfortunately, Team GB won't fare quite so well in beach volleyball, but many fans will feel it was money well spent watching them try.
* Scotland will be appearing in the European Championships - their first major tournament finals since the 1998 World Cup. I expect them to do well: in a group containing England, Croatia and the Czech Republic, they could score a goal...
* 2021 will be better than 2020. For most of us at least – and definitely for those who (like me) are self-employed photographers.
* Team GB will do well in this year's Olympics. There will be over 20 British golds, mainly in athletics, swimming, boxing, rowing and sailing. We'll also do surprisingly well in equestrian events. Unfortunately, Team GB won't fare quite so well in beach volleyball, but many fans will feel it was money well spent watching them try.
* Scotland will be appearing in the European Championships - their first major tournament finals since the 1998 World Cup. I expect them to do well: in a group containing England, Croatia and the Czech Republic, they could score a goal...
* 2021 will be better than 2020. For most of us at least – and definitely for those who (like me) are self-employed photographers.
* In these times of uncertainty, it's reassuring to be able to predict that 2021 will be followed by 2022. (Actually, I'm not even sure of that any longer...)
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