Amazing win in North Shropshire

The last time the constituency of North Shropshire returned an MP who wasn't a Tory was in the famous 1832 General Election, when Whig John Cotes successfully secured the second available seat. Even then, he didn't top the poll.

Since that time, aside from a brief period between 1904 and 1906 when Liberal Allan Heywood Bright held the Oswestry seat and a few years in the Blair era when Labour came a reasonably close second, North Shropshire has been the kind of safe Conservative seat in which electoral contests are about as competitive as the Ashes. 

But something happened last night - and the result is nothing short of incredible. Not only have the Liberal Democrats managed to overturn Owen Paterson's 22,949 majority but they did it comfortably, winning by almost 6,000 votes. 

It's a great win for Helen Morgan and the Lib Dem team. It's also a devastating blow for Boris Johnson's government. I'm not sure which of these outcomes pleases me most. 

This was not remotely promising territory for the Lib Dems and I doubt when the by-election was called too many of us were optimistic enough to foresee this kind of sensational result. But if a week is a long time in politics then a month is an eternity, and accusations of sleaze and lockdown parties radically changed the mood of the electorate. The nature of the previous MP's resignation also won't have helped the Conservatives' cause locally.

What the by-election result does show is that the Prime Minister is becoming a liability. The "bumbling Boris" act has ceased to be effective and even the birth of the Johnsons' daughter didn't provide any kind of bounce. Voters are becoming impatient with the ineptitude of the government, and it will be interesting to see how patient Conservative MPs will be with a Prime Minister who no longer looks in control. 

Senior Conservatives are already seeking to publicly diminish the significance of the result as "mid-term blues", with Charles Walker commenting that the by-election defeat represents a return to "business as usual". It does not - the scale of the defeat, with the Conservatives recording their second highest drop in vote share in any by-election since 1945, is hardly typical. The voters of North Shropshire have sent a clear message that they will not tolerate corruption, sleaze and incompetence, and it would be a mistake for the party of government to overlook that. This is a very dangerous situation for the government and appearing to simply shrug it off as "one of those things" won't help matters.

While it's a catastrophic defeat for the Conservatives, it was a very good night for Helen Morgan and the Lib Dems and that was not only due to Tory ineptitude. We have rediscovered how to successfully fight by-elections, especially in Conservative strongholds. I won't say this proves we've once again become by-election specialists, but this is remiscent of some of those stunning victories in the early 1990s. 

In her victory speech, Helen Morgan lambasted a government "run on lies and bluster" and a Prime Minister that has " misle[d] the nation on how [his] office partied during lockdown. Tonight the people of North Shropshire have said enough is enough. They have said that you are unfit to lead and that they want a change." Somehow I doubt the voters of North Shropshire are alone in that respect.

Lib Dem leader Ed Davey called the result a "watershed moment in British politics." He said: "I'm just so proud of our party, our campaigners, I think we've brought hope to the nation... The Liberal Democrats have proven the Conservatives can be beaten anywhere and I think people who are so fed up with Boris Johnson, his incompetence and his behaviour, I think will be really happy about that."

Indeed we should be. We also have a new Liberal voice in Parliament who will not only speak out against sleaze and dishonesty but stand up for decency, transparency and integrity in politics.

Well done to everyone who contributed to this outstanding result. I hope you all have the best Christmas!