My predictions for 2024

It’s that time of year again – when I make predictions for the coming year.

Unlike this time last year, I’m afraid I can’t indulge in any self-congratulation for what I correctly predicted.  Yes, I forecast more “steady but unspectacular progress” for the Lib Dems, no real improvement for the Conservatives under Sunak, Dominic Raab resigning over bullying allegations and things not being “plain sailing” for an SNP with heightened “internal tensions” emerging. However, none of that will have been remotely surprising for anyone with any understanding of the political climate.

Similarly, my prediction about the state of US politics merely stated the obvious, as too did the projection that Celtic would be league champions. 

One prediction I am quite proud of from last year is in relation to Poland: “Ultimately, the PiS will remain the largest party but without a majority, even with the support of its Zjednoczona Prawica (United Right) partners. A new centrist government will be the likely outcome, but it will be an uneasy alliance hampered by the worsening economic picture.” Well, that is exactly what has happened and Poland finally has a non-PIS government. I wish Poland every success as its new leadership tries to reverse the damaging effects of PiS rule.

What did I get wrong? Well, the result of the Czech presidential election didn’t go the way I predicted, although I am quite happy to have been wrong on that count. The East African economic union didn’t materialise. My expectation that Elon Musk would no longer be involved with twitter at the end of the year was clearly misplaced, There was obviously quite a lot I didn’t foresee, including the resignation of Nicola Sturgeon and the turmoil that would create. Neither did I predict the shocking events of 7th October in Israel nor Azerbaijan’s seizing of Nagorno-Karabakh (the social cleansing and lack of interest from the world media that followed were utterly depressing) – although in fairness I doubt many others did either.

So, what do I think will happen in 2024? 

POLITICS

The Liberal Democrats

2024 is going to be a General Election year. How good will it be for the Lib Dems? 

In all probability, it will be good enough for the leadership to claim credit for making progress, but not sufficiently good to silence critics who feel more could have been gained with a more positive and focused campaign. The party will do well in several formerly Conservative-held seats and will also pick up a few constituencies in Scotland, but will fare less well where Labour are stronger. 

The Lib Dems will have a well-developed but unexciting policy platform, which won’t really matter in an election in which tactical voting to keep out the Conservatives reaches levels not seen since the Blair years. Lib Dems will finish with around 25 seats – a welcome return to 1992 levels - as Labour secure a landslide victory, picking up well over 400 seats with 42% of the vote.

Constituencies gained by the Lib Dems will include Guildford, Lewes, Taunton Deane, Eastleigh, Eastbourne, Hazel Grove and Dumbarton East.

The Conservative Party

Jeremy Hunt will unwisely use his budget to appeal to Conservative core voters, alienating others in the process. Expect a “giveaway” that includes inheritance and income tax cuts. Unfortunately for Hunt, the public won’t really feel the benefits of the budget immediately: despite falling inflation, consumer prices will remain high.

2024 will mark the end of the Conservative Party’s time in power – and the beginning of a descent into factionalism that will see the party rip itself apart in opposition. Rishi Sunak’s ineffective leadership will see the Conservatives faring even worse in a General Election than they did in 1997, taking less than 30% for the first time since... well, the emergence of party politics. Many high-profile sitting MPs will lose their seats, among them Lee Anderson, Tobias Ellwood, Iain Duncan Smith, Andrea Jenkyns, Penny Mordaunt, Esther McVey, Grant Shapps and Jacob Rees-Mogg. 

Following catastrophic defeat in the General Election, Sunak will immediately step down as leader. With many would-be successors having lost their seats, Suella Braverman will emerge the winner in a leadership contest that will be, in many respects, a fight for the soul of the party. Hailed by Nigel Farage as “a great result for Britain”, Braverman’s election will merely serve to underline the membership’s decision to take the path into the political wilderness. 

A small group of MPs, backed by a surprisingly large number of councillors, will propose a breakaway party to “reclaim Conservatism” from Braverman’s “neo-fascism”. Unfortunately its “leaders” will prove to be as inept as the government they served and their efforts will come to nothing.

The Labour Party

Labour will begin the year believing they don’t have to do much aside from take advantage of the Conservatives’ current predicament. And in that belief they will be absolutely right. 

Labour will win the Wellingborough by-election in a contest that, like Mid Bedfordshire, will have them and the Lib Dems both offering themselves as the party best placed to “keep the Tories out”. The toxic campaign will set the tone for the coming General Election and make clear that Labour are uninterested in collaboration.

Keir Starmer will make no bold promises going into the General Election, not least because he has no need to. Preferring to be “all things to all people” and focused on highlighting the incumbent government’s ineptitude and inhumanity, Starmer will project the Labour Party as “ready for government”. Whether it is well-prepared to meet the challenges of rebuilding the country is another question entirely but, faced with the choice of a Starmer premiership or more of the same from Sunak & Co, most voters will decide change is better. 

Labour will easily triumph in the General Election and will secure a result even more sensational than the one Tony Blair achieved in 1997. Corbynites will immediately disown it.

In Scotland, Labour will take several seats from the SNP including most of the Glasgow constituencies and several in the central belt. Labour won’t quite be back to the level of dominance in Scotland the party enjoyed in the late 1990s, but it will once again hold a majority of Scottish seats in Westminster. This will have been achieved in spite of rather unadventurous leadership, with Labour merely exploiting opponents’ weaknesses.

In London, Sadiq Khan will win the mayoral election despite significant backlash against ULEZ. 

The Scottish National Party

2024 is going to be a difficult year for the SNP. Humza Yousaf, already not looking entirely convincing, will stumble from one crisis to another. His misfortunes will be caused mainly by events outwith his control, not least the inquiry into SNP finances.  

Yousaf will come under fire for the SNP’s lacklustre performance in the General Election, in which the SNP will lose just over half of their Westminster seats. It will become abundantly clear that the SNP’s ascendancy in Scotland is over. An increasingly divided party will find itself in an existential crisis, especially when a couple of senior figures opt to join Alba. Yousaf will resign late in the year, opening the way for a leadership contest even more toxic than the last one – which Kate Forbes will win comfortably. 

International

Russia will continue on the route to inevitable military disaster in Ukraine. The stalemate is unlikely to be broken in 2024, but the ongoing conflict will become embarrassing for Vladimir Putin. Several Russian officials will either disappear, eat something poisonous or fall out of windows in 2024. Putin will of course win the Presidential election with an implausibly large share of the vote. 

Joe Biden, like Keir Starmer, knows that winning the presidential election is just a question of taking advantage of opponents’ predicaments.  The question of whether Donald Trump can even stand in the election will dominate the political conversation, and the Republicans will find it impossible to unite around anyone. They will eventually settle on Ron De Santis – perhaps “settle” is too strong a word – who will lose, much to the delight of arch-Trump supporters.  

What will happen in Israel? For many months, little will change due to the intransigence of Benjamin Netanyahu and Hamas’s lack of interest in peace talks. In the rest of the world, it will become increasingly difficult to have a rational and nuanced conversation about the future of Israel-Palestine. Eventually, speaking from a position of weakness, Hamas will reluctantly agree to discussions; Netanyahu, under pressure domestically, will refuse any engagement with “the enemy” before sensationally quitting. With Netanyahu out of the way, the door will be open for conversations that may see some steps towards peace being made.

No-one will be talking about the genocide and social cleansing in Nagorno-Karabakh, nor the 300,000 displaced victims of diplomatic failure. A peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia won’t be forthcoming either. 

Poland’s new coalition government – despite being hampered by conservative president Andrzej Duda – will begin to implement a pragmatic centre-left package of reforms. This will include protecting the judiciary from political interference, although it will take time to reverse PiS appointments. The coalition will increase the minimum wage and child benefit payments and, while Duda is likely veto any steps towards increasing abortion rights and LGBTQ+ rights in the immediate future, political conversations around these issues will become more inclusive and acknowledge changing social attitudes. Expect a stronger EU-focus and economic improvement.

The Belgian federal election in June will result in current PM Alexander de Croo leaving office, but negotiating new power-sharing arrangements will prove very difficult. In Austria, the Freedom Party (FPÖ) will once again create the usual fears of “a far-right surge” without actually taking power – on this occasion the party’s pro-Russian stance and support for Covid conspiracies will limit its appeal to centrist voters. 

FOOTBALL

All of a sudden it seems the Scottish Premiership has become interesting again. Actually, I’m not so sure it has, but at least it has become a contest between two teams. Celtic will win the league title by a single point, thanks to a late winner in a bad-tempered derby match. Another close-fought race in the Championship will see Dundee United eventually take the crown with Raith Rovers being promoted via the play-offs. League One and League Two will be won by Falkirk and Stenhousemuir respectively.

Rangers will win the Scottish Women’s Premier League with Celtic as runners up, the first time the “Old Firm” have taken the two stop spots. It will also be the first time since 2003 that Glasgow City have finished outside the top two – expect more of the same in future seasons. 

In England, Aston Villa will; have a fantastic season but will finish up in fourth place. A strong performance from Manchester City in the final third of the season brings them into contention in a fascinating three-horse race that also includes Arsenal and Liverpool. Arsenal will emerge triumphant after a dramatic final day that sees the Gunners beat Everton 2-1.

The winners of the Championship, League One and League Two will be Leicester City, Portsmouth and Mansfield Town respectively. The Women’s Super League will be won by Chelsea.

The European Championship will see some surprise results – including Scotland earning a draw with Hungary and a win over Switzerland to move beyond the group stage. England will reach the semi-finals before losing to Croatia (again). The Croats will themselves be beaten by France in the final (again). 

ELSEWHERE

The Church of England will move into the next stage of discussion about same-sex unions. These will, unfortunately, be of similar character to previous such conversations.

Nigel Farage and his Reform Party will poll reasonably well in the General Election without winning seats – essentially ensuring an even larger scale of victory for Labour. After years leading his various parties, Farage will become reconciled to the Conservative Party late in the year and will be offered a peerage in Rishi Sunak’s resignation honours list – much to Nadine Dorries’ fury.

An October General Election will really mess up everyone’s party conference plans. 

Team GB will perform very well at the Olympics in Paris, finishing fourth in the overall medals table. 

Under Elon Musk’s ownership, X/Twitter will be overtaken by Threads as the leading text-based social media platform. Musk will seek to sell X/Twitter, but it is clear to prospective buyers that the platform’s time is up. 

2024 will be the year in which AI-generated media becomes a problem, especially as search engines will initially be unable to detect it. AI-generated content becoming more pervasive will create new opportunities for lawyers, however...

IN LIGHTER VEIN

An American actor is chosen to be the next James Bond. For some reason this will be incredibly controversial.

Douglas Ross will stun political observers when he sensationally steps down as leader of the Conservatives in Holyrood. The reasons for his decision will not be immediately obvious until video footage comes to light showing him calling fellow Tories “b*****ds” and “pr**ks” and complaining that he’s given up being a top referee “for this sh*tshow”. 

GB News will change its name to GB Talk to avoid giving the impression that it is, in fact, a news channel. By the end of the year, mounting losses will see the channel become a subscription-only online “service” loved by some but ignored by most. 

After losing all of its deposits in the 2023 General Election, Laurence Fox will deregister the Reclaim Party. Withdrawing from politics, he vows to establish a new charity to support vulnerable white males in the face of the “feminist agenda” and “general wokery”.

Mrs Brown’s Boys will surprise TV audiences when it broadcasts a genuinely funny episode.

UK rail services will remain awful and overpriced.