My predictions for 2023

Last year, as I have for over a decade, I made some predictions for the coming year. Unusually, I got some things spectacularly right... but of course one or two things not quite so right.

Let’s take a look at some of my more impressive predictions from last year before I look at what 2023 may bring. 

I was right that things would get worse for Boris Johnson and that his MPs would lose patience with him. I was also correct that he would be succeeded by Liz Truss, who would beat Rishi Sunak in the leadership election, and that her choice as chancellor would be an unwise one. She did, however, surprise me in choosing someone even more inept that the person I had suggested. 

I predicted that Liz Truss would “lack both the understanding and creativity to turn her party’s fortunes around and the Tories will finish the year fifteen points behind Labour in the polls.” I don’t think anyone could argue I wasn’t on the money there, but even I didn’t think the PM would be out of Downing Street just 49 days after taking office.

I said it would be a good year for the Lib Dems in by-elections. While there weren’t a lot of by-elections in places where we could do well, the victory at Tiverton and Honiton underlines the point I was making about the party becoming more electable, especially in Conservative-facing seats. I also predicted that 2022 would be good for Labour although Keir Starmer would appear “cautious and never entirely convincing” – admittedly, most people would probably have come to similar conclusions. 

On the international front I surmised that “It will become increasingly clear that no-one has any idea how to handle Russia”. Sadly, and tragically, this prediction now feels like an understatement rather than an astute forecast. I correctly predicted that Bongbong Marcos would win the presidential election in the Philippines and – in arguably my most impressive political prediction ever – foresaw the Republican Party failing to win a majority in the Senate. “The disunity in the increasingly inward-looking GOP, not helped by Donald Trump being very much in the background, will result in a failure to seize opportunities.” 

I was correct in thinking Emmanuel Macron would regain the French presidency; I was wrong to believe the threat of Marine Le Pen would dissipate, although she only finished 1.2% ahead of Jean-Luc Mélenchon to secure a place in the run-off so my broader argument that the RN is on a downward trajectory wasn’t too misplaced. What else did I get right? In football, I correctly predicted Cowdenbeath being relegated from the SPFL, and Newcastle United avoiding relegation. I am quite impressed that I saw West Indies beating England in the Test series – few others thought that a likely outcome.

My predictions about the World Cup I think were fulfilled in part – whether you judge the event as being a “disaster” for FIFA and Qatar ultimately depends on your perspective.  I was certainly wrong when I said “FIFA [would be] apologising for awarding Qatar the competition in the first instance” but, as former FIFA supremo Sepp Blatter essentially did that in a personal capacity, I’m taking some credit there.

I correctly forecast that Manchester City would win the English Premiership (admittedly, that wasn’t much of a surprise) and, more impressively, that Fulham, Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest would be promoted from the Championship. Who would have foreseen Forest in the top flight this time last year? 

What else did I get right? “Prince Andrew will come under increased pressure to answer questions about sex abuse and his associations with Jeffrey Epstein. Unfortunately, none of the answers will be provided in a courtroom. “ Tick. “The Commonwealth Games will be a great success for Birmingham.” Tick - well done Birmingham on hosting a great event. “The pound’s value will diminish further and the British economy will struggle on account of several factors.” Tick. “Ladbaby will take their fifth successive Christmas number 1.” Tick. The only thing I got wrong was which Christmas classic they would use for the food-inspired parody.

For the sake of balance, what did I not get right? Well, I had Steve Barclay down as the new chancellor and although he’s still been over-promoted (to Health Secretary) that has to go down as something I got wrong. I’m afraid my prediction that Péter Márki-Zay would oust Viktor Orbán in Hungary was wildly optimistic. My hope that the Lib Dems would “gather for the first non-virtual conference since 2019” was dealt a blow by the death of the queen, and understandably conference committee made the decision to cancel the event. I was also completely wrong when I suggested Douglas Ross would be finding ways to distance himself from the Conservatives at Westminster in order to make the Scottish Tories more distinctive – he really hasn’t done anything.

Similarly, I was mistaken in thinking there would be a reconciliation between Jeremy Corbyn and the Labour Party.

I also was mistaken when I predicted that Brazil would win the World Cup, that Rangers would win the league and that Arsenal would lift the FA Cup.  And I thought South Africa would beat England in the summer Test series. But, on the whole, I think I got more right than wrong.

So, what will happen in 2023?

POLITICS

The Liberal Democrats

2023 will not be too different for the Lib Dems. Once again they will continue to make steady but unspectacular progress, especially in local elections and parliamentary by-elections in which the party best positioned to beat the Tories will win. The party will do well in formerly Conservative-held seats; less well against Labour.

The Lib Dems’ success will be built on positioning themselves as the best “anyone but the Tory” option in various places, rather than on policy position or an understanding of how to exploit the current economic situation to its advantage. All the same, progress is progress.

There won’t be a lot new as far as policy development goes. There will be some fraught internal conversations but fortunately the media – and everyone else – won’t really notice these. 

The party’s first non-virtual conference since 2019 will take place this year. No-one will notice this either. 

The Conservative Party

On the plus side, things won’t get significantly worse for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. More negatively from his perspective, they won’t significantly improve either. His survival is assured as no-one else wants the job, but the mood on the backbenches will be far from positive with few inspired by the government’s cautious approach. Some will go as far as to criticise both the PM and his chancellor for being “too left-wing”.

Essentially, Sunak will have little control of his parliamentary party, but without an obvious leadership figure to rally around the PM will not feel threatened.

Factionalism will deepen within the party and an ever-widening gulf will emerge between the priorities of government ministers and backbenchers. 

The bullying controversy around Dominic Raab will intensify and Raab will resign as an MP. The resultant by-election will produce a Lib Dem gain.

With the Conservative Party will continue to struggle in the polls, Sunak will face two distinct challenges: uniting his party and improving its appeal to the public. His decision to bring Priti Patel back into cabinet will achieve little on either front.

Despite the High Court ruling that Rwanda deportations are legal, Home Secretary Suella Braverman’s dream of “mass deportations” won’t be realised. Firstly, some influential Conservative MPs and Peers will find the whole scheme morally repressible and will be vocal in expressing their feelings. Secondly, facts will emerge about Rwandan refugee camps and the country’s wider approach to human rights. However, most significantly, the scheme will simply prove impractical and expensive with no impact whatsoever on the numbers seeking to across the channel – and, in the final analysis, hardly worth risking the government’s international reputation for. 

Steve Barclay will look increasingly out of his depth as Health Secretary as the nurses’ strike will be followed by similar industrial action from other health professionals - including junior doctors. His attempts to be tough will do little other than reinforce the idea that he is a bully, out of touch with reality and ignorant of the needs of the Health Service. Barclay’s stint as health Secretary will be brief, but he will remain in cabinet following a reshuffle.

The Labour Party

Not much will change for Labour – let’s be realistic, it doesn’t need to. Benefitting from being way ahead on the polls, Starmer will take a few risks policy-wise – being more assertive on economic policy, for example – but generally speaking Labour’s focus will be on exposing Tory weakness and ineptitude rather than speaking about their own priorities.

Labour will talk positively about constitutional reform, a federalist UK and changes to the electoral system, but unfortunately this will not be followed up by anything of substance. It will adopt a supposedly “open-minded” approach towards the question of Scotland’s future, essentially underlining its lack of any firm policy aside from opposition to independence. 

A string of by-election successes will help project Starmer as a Prime Minister in waiting. They will also have the effect of silencing the criticisms of those within his own party for whom he simply isn’t “left wing” enough... at least for now. 

Starmer, who has struggled to create a strong Labour “brand” so far during his leadership, will be aided by the Conservatives’ internal turmoil. He will also seize the initiative to better sell himself to the British public, speaking up for striking NHS professionals and other public sector workers. 

Labour will be the big winners in the English local elections (the Lib Dems and the Greens will also fare moderately well). 

The Scottish National Party

It’s not going to be plain sailing for the SNP. Low economic growth, increased criticism of domestic policy and internal friction around the route to independence will combine to make this a tough year for the First Minister. 

However, as has been the case so often in the past, she will be fortunate in the counter-productive and counter-intuitive tactics her opponents adopt. 

The new SNP leader at Westminster, Stephen Flynn, will demonstrate his strengths and will prove a methodical questioner at PMQs. He will command respect from opponents but crucially, on some key issues, will take an obviously different approach to Nicola Sturgeon and the Scottish government. This will only serve to heighten internal tensions. 

International

Russia will continue to struggle militarily in Ukraine. Politically speaking, in spite of the messages from official state propaganda, more and more Russians will begin to see the Ukraine conflict as one that cannot be won. These will include many people around Vladimir Putin himself. Various significant officials will be found dead in mysterious situations, before Putin himself will step down in equally mysterious circumstances. The new Russian leader will initially seek a negotiated peace on his terms, failing to appreciate that Russia is not acting from a position of strength.

Having seen off his political opponents in 2022, the new challenge for Hungary’s Viktor Orbán will be an economic one.  With inflation currently at 22% and likely to spiral out of control, Orbán will come to the realisation that he needs the support of fellow EU member states. Expect Orbán to awkwardly seek to present himself as a European moderniser, rowing back on some of his human rights restrictions and illiberal domestic policies and adopting a more friendly approach towards the EU itself. It won’t be enough to halt the descent into economic chaos, however – by the end of the year Orbán and Fidesz will be faltering following a wave of protests. 

It will be a similar story for PiS in Poland. While not in quite the same dire economic predicament as Hungary, low growth of under 0.5% and a wave of protests about price increases and social issues will undermine support for the incumbent government. The current policy of delaying the impact of inflation until after the Sejm elections will be seen for what it is; sensing the rough seas ahead, President Andrzej Duda will call the elections slightly earlier than anticipated and PiS will offer a populist and seemingly generous slate of policies, none of which are realistic. Revitalised opposition parties, sensing PiS’s weakness, will exploit the economic situation to their advantage with some success. Ultimately, the PiS will remain the largest party but without a majority, even with the support of its Zjednoczona Prawica (United Right) partners. A new centrist government will be the likely outcome, but it will be an uneasy alliance hampered by the worsening economic picture.

In the US, Joe Biden will surprise a few people when he announces that he intends to run for a second term. The Republican Party will continue to be dominated by the spectre of Donald Trump, who similarly will announce he is running for the presidency shortly before being formally indicted by the Department of Justice in relation to potential violations of the Espionage Act. Other Republicans putting themselves forward to be their party’s presidential candidate will include Mke Pompeo (who will withdraw when Trump announces his own intentions), Ted Cruz and Ron DeSantis. DeSantis will be the firm favourite and the ensuing contest between him and Trump will threaten to split the GOP.

The Czech presidential election, a genuine three-horse race, will be won by Andrej Babiš of the ANO 2011 party. The former PM’s cynically opportunistic tactics will see him narrowly triumph over the nominally-independent Danuše Nerudová in the second round.

A new political union will emerge in East Africa. Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania will be joined by several other nations in the new project, which will aim to create stronger political, economic and humanitarian ties between member states. Concerns will be expressed by the African union that this new group may be the beginning to the emergence of a new federated East African state with the potential to radically alter the balance of power.

Bola Tinubu will be elected the new president of Nigeria in a close-run contest that the “Western” news media will shamefully take absolutely no interest in. 

FOOTBALL

It seems irrelevant to make predictions for the least competitive football league in the world, but Celtic will win the Scottish Premiership title. Ross County will be relegated and replaced by Dundee. It’s looking very tight at the other end of the SPFL, but I sense that Albion Rovers will finish in bottom place. They will, however, win the play-off decider. 

I would love to see Arsenal win the English Premiership and it is a distinct possibility; however, I suspect Manchester City’s experience and depth of squad will make the difference in the final analysis. Relegated teams will be Wolves, Everton and Southampton. Burnley, Sheffield United and Sunderland will be promoted to the Premiership.

It's a tough call but I'm going to tip Arsenal to win the Women's Super League.

Manchester United will be sold by the Glazers. This news will be welcomed by United fans until the identities and aspirations of the new owners become clearer.

ELSEWHERE

We will see a lot more use of artificial intelligence, revolutionising the way we work and live. Generative AI, which creates “novel content”, will require universities to radically review their approaches to student assessment. 

Elon Musk will not be involved with twitter by the end of the year. 

IN LIGHTER VEIN

Elon Musk will find a new hobby. Fortunately, it won’t involve the Republican Party; unfortunately, it will involve an entity previously respected in the scientific world.

John Cleese will announce a brand new show entitled “And now for something completely different”. Unfortunately, it will be broadcast on GB News, won’t be remotely funny and will in fact be “more of the same”. 

The Eurovision Song contest, held in Liverpool, will be a great success. The United Kingdom will enter a dreadful song, not wishing to host the event two years in succession. It will be won by Poland with a pro-Ukraine song, with the contest’s LGBT+ fans being confused as to whether they should or should not celebrate the Polish victory.  Liverpool will benefit massively from the economic boost hosting Eurovision will bring, but one of the few Liverpudlians to get a ticket for the final will create some controversy when they tell the BBC that “it’s all a bit s**t really and only marginally better than watching Everton”. 

The coronation of King Charles III will also be a great success. An unmuted microphone will provide an unexpected twist when a brief conversation between the King and the Queen Consort is accidentally broadcast live. The king will be heard saying nice things about both of his sons and their wives, much to the annoyance of Piers Morgan and the Daily Mail. 

The Labour Party will adjust its position on Brexit. It will move from its current stance of doing nothing about it to saying nothing about it.

Boris Johnson will step down as an MP to spend more time with his commercial interests. These will include a book in which he not only defends his handling of the Coronavirus pandemic but presents himself as a national hero. The book will contain attacks on Matt Hancock and Dominic Cummings, which will lead the latter to take legal action against the former PM.

Various Conservative MPs including Nadine Dorries and Andrew Bridgen will express their frustrations with the Sunak government to anyone willing to hear them. They will argue that Britain needs to “return to traditional values”, while regurgitating internet conspiracy theories. They will suggest creating a new breakaway party called Common Sense. No-one will take them very seriously but things will get really bad for them when they are openly mocked by Nigel Farage on GB News. 

With the charts so irrelevant that the 2022 Christmas number 1 secured top spot with a mere 65,000 unit sales, the Official UK Top 40 Charts will be abolished. This decision will initially be met with some sadness by music nostalgics, but there will be some relief that it will prevent Ladbaby taking their sixth successive Christmas number 1 with yet another unmemorable “parody”.

Basically, 2023 will look quite a lot like 2022 but we may see some moves back towards what we used to consider boring day-to-day politics.