Some thoughts on the 2024 General Election

This has been a General Election in which I've probably been more active than ever before.

I don't know who thought that a summer election was a good idea (well, I do actually - his name is Rishi) but from my personal perspective it's been a terrific experience. 

It's been a long six weeks and a long night - but before the dust settles and the real analysts try to make sense of the vote, here are some of my own thoughts on what we have learned from this election.

a) This is the most disproportionate result in living memory. It is even worse than 1983, when the SDP-Liberal Alliance won 25.4% of the vote and 23 seats compared to Labour's 209 seats with 27.6%. It's not actually too bad for the Lib Dems, but the Greens and Reform have predictably suffered as a result of the electoral system while Labour have secured a huge majority with what looks to be around 35% of the vote - and that on the second lowest turnout since 1885.

The joint Labour and Conservative vote at around 60% is the lowest since 1923, when the Liberal Party won 158 seats. Labour have managed to win a landslide with the lowest share of the vote ever received by any party to secure a  Commons majority. 

The system is broken and is fundamentally anti-democratic. Will Labour do anything meaningful to bring about overdue electoral reform, or will vested interests once again win out? 

b) This is the worst ever result for the Conservatives - far worse than 1997. The only comparable result predates modern party politics: in the Glorious Revolution election of 1689 the Tories lost 236 seats, but even then they retained a respectable 232. 

The Conservatives have lost so many seats that not so long ago would have seemed safe. What was the biggest shock of the night? Maidenhead? South West Norfolk? Uxbridge and South Ruislip? For me it was actually East Shoreham and Worthing, which has never been held by Labour but is now just one of many once solidly blue constituencies that have opted for change.

They have lost so badly partly because of Reform but principally because they deserve to. They have run an abysmal campaign in defence of an abysmal record in government. No doubt many Conservatives will be tempted to blame others for their predicament, but ultimately the Conservative Party is responsible for its own failures.

Former PM Liz Truss has already blamed the Human Rights Act for the poor Conservative performance. I am not suggesting that reaction is typical, but such a lack of self-awareness will do nothing to help her party regenerate after this disaster.

What is clear is that the electorate has lost faith with the Conservative Party. What is less clear is where it goes from here, how it responds to this catastrophic defeat and how it rebuilds. 

c) Labour didn't win this election - the Conservatives lost it. I don't mean to sound churlish and diminish Labour's victory. However, the bigger picture is one of the Conservatives haemorrhaging votes to Reform while Labour levels of support remain roughly what they were in 2019. In short, Labour are benefitting from the Reform surge rather than any noticeable increase in their own vote - only in Scotland, where Labour has done well against the SNP, has there been any significant increase in the Labour vote share. 

It's also noticeable that Labour hasn't done well with the Muslim vote, hence losing to independents in Blackburn and Leicester South. 

Labour are beneficiaries of the electoral system. The result is a spectacular one, but should not be read as indicative of levels of public support for Labour. There doesn't seem to be the same level of public enthusiasm about Labour under Starmer as there was for, say, Labour under Blair in 1997.

d) The Liberal Democrats are back. This really should be the big story of the night. We're not just back - we've gone from 8 MPs in 2019 to (as things stand with a few constituencies still to declare) 71. That is the best result in a General Election for the Lib Dems / Liberal Party in 101 years. 

This is incredible and beats my most optimistic predictions. 

There have been so many fantastic results: Wokingham, Hazel Grove, Maidenhead, Woking, Guildford, Witney, Mid Dunbartonshire, Winchester, Newbury... but for me the best of them all is Sutton and Cheam. It wasn't a target seat for us and we appointed a candidate very late in the day - yet still succeeded in overturning a majority of 8,351. 

There aren't words to adequately describe how monumental this result is for us. It is absolutely enormous. What is so pleasing is that we are not only back to pre-coalition levels of seats but have actually gone beyond that - this success is in no small part due to the fact that voters are once again feeling they can trust us. 

It's also clear that we are once again seen as an anti-Conservative alternative, as we were prior to the 2010 coalition. 

I have to admit that, when Ed Davey was elected leader, I was not expecting him to be able to so effectively reenergise the party. I am absolutely delighted to have been proved wrong. While we have benefitted from the Tory collapse it is undeniable that our targeting has been effective and that our campaign has been both innovative and focused. I was proud to be part of it, and to stand on our manifesto. 

We are now the largest third party since 1923 - let that sink in for a moment. It's simply mind-blowing.

e) The Brexit factor. Brexit is clearly still a factor - but not as significant. Leave-voting areas are turning away from the Conservatives. The appeal of Reform goes beyond the single issue of Brexit. 

However, David Cameron's decision to hold a referendum if he won in 2015 - in the misguided view it would unite his party and diminish the threat of Nigel Farage - continues to have an impact on British politics. That fatal miscalculation has resulted in his own party effectively being eaten by the Brexit issue and Nigel Farage - far from being marginalised and diminished - delivering the blow that could send the Tories into political oblivion for the foreseeable future.

f) It's "game over" for the SNP. I was interested to see how tactical voting would work in Scotland and when I saw the exit poll I couldn't believe things would be quite so bad for the SNP. 

Like the Conservatives, the SNP are where they are because they deserve to be. They have been engineers of their own downfall. Labour have taken advantage of the SNP's problems to win in constituencies across Scotland from Livingston to Na h-Eileanan an Iar and it's clear that many people who trusted the SNP - perhaps despite of their position on independence - have lost either faith or patience in John Swinney's party.

Things are only going to get more difficult for the SNP and, with Labour's resurgence, it's difficult to see how they can recover. 

The SNP obviously remain in government in Scotland but, with their Westminster cohort significantly diminished the expectation will be that this will change in two years' time unless Swinney can turn things around dramatically. I don't expect him to and, crucially, I don't think many SNP members do either.

It's safe to say that the independence question will not be dominating the political conversation in the coming months. Instead, the SNP will be facing difficult questions of their own against the backdrop of falling public confidence.

g) Opinion polls are fallible.  I refused to be carried away by the opinion polls. Much as I wanted to believe that the Lib Dems were likely to become the official opposition, it never seemed likely. Clearly these polls don't take into account either incumbency or a variety of local factors. 

h) Reform and the Greens. Both of these parties suffered as a result of the anti-democratic electoral system. I may not be a fan of Reform (to put it mildly) but one thing we share is a belief that the electoral system has to change.

Reform won four seats*, which represents a breakthrough for them but it's hardly groundbreaking. For the most part, despite talk of building a "national mass movement", Farage and Richard Tice have been content to act as spoilers, gleefully destroying the Conservative Party. What the presence of four Reform MPs means for Westminster we will have to wait and see, but I would be surprised if the united front can be maintained for long (anyone remember the UKIP group in the EU Parliament?).

The Greens did very well, targeting four seats and winning all of them, earning stunning victories in Waveney Valley, North Herefordshire and Bristol Central (with 56% of the vote). In many other constituencies the Greens finished ahead of the Lib Dems and they actually look far more likely than Reform to build an authentic grassroots movement. 

i) It all feels like 1997 again. A huge Labour majority, a Conservative Party devoid of purpose and vision, Lib Dems making major gains, the SNP in single figures and so many so-called "Portillo moments". Events seem to have gone full circle... plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose.

So they're my personal reflections. However, my overriding feeling at the moment is one of jubilation at an astonishing result for the Liberal Democrats - one which would have seemed unthinkable just a few weeks ago. Thank you to every candidate, every member and every volunteer who helped deliver such a stunning result. 

It's brilliant to be back.

* This was confirmed to be five when later results were announced,