Lib Dems win Brecon and Radnorshire
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| Jane Dodds MP (Photo: BBC) |
The by-election had been called following the successful recall petition of incumbent Chris Davies. Mr Davies had pleaded guilty to claiming false expenses, but was nonetheless reselected by the Conservatives as their candidate in the by-election.
Opinion polling suggested two things - that the Liberal Democrats would win but that it was likely to be close. Indeed it was. The narratives surrounding the by-election naturally focused on Brexit, but it would also be a mistake to lose sight of the various local factors involved. Mr Davies' conviction certainly loomed large in the background, and this was a constituency the Liberal Democrats held between 1997 and 2015. Rural issues were important in a constituency in which many voters feel disconnected from both Westminster and Cardiff. Brexit might have been the main talking point, but the community politics also played a role here.
Well done to Jane and her team on this historic victory. People will argue about what it means for the UK and for the Conservative government, some labouring under the false belief that the new prime Minister losing a majority will create some kind of political crisis. I am quite certain that this is not the result Boris Johnson would have wanted, but what the result actually means is that there is a new liberal, pro-European voice in parliament and that the voters of Brecon and Radnorshire have a new representative who will work hard for their community and interests.
I'd like to make a few brief observations on the result:
The Lib Dems lost the seat in 2015 with a swing of 12.7% to the Conservatives. Two years later Chris Davies actually increased their majority, making all talk of a Lib Dem fightback in the area appear wishful thinking. But in the two years that have elapsed since then the party has regained its credibility, sense of purpose and - most significantly - the trust and respect of voters who once abandoned it.
Candidates matter - Jane Dodds was exactly the right candidate for the Lib Dems and having a personable, outgoing, community-focused Welsh speaking prospective MP with a strong knowledge of rural issues was absolutely key to success.
As for the Conservatives -the fact is it wasn't a terrible by-election for them given the early polling. The "Boris bounce" didn't save them here, but it is abundantly clear that Mr Johnson's positioning on Brexit is - for the time being at least - drawing support from those who might otherwise have been tempted to support the Brexit Party. The Brexit Party itself seems to be a repository for disaffected Tories, something that won't be lost on the Prime Minister.
The Brexit Party failed miserably, having been talking only yesterday about finishing in second place. Their candidate, Des Parkinson, who finished a distant third with just over 10% of the vote, said: "If you look at the actual total of the vote, the Brexiteers won." He will know that's not how the FPTP electoral system works, which makes the Brexit Party's determination to stand here look particularly ill-advised from the perspective of ensuring a pro-Brexit victory. They could, after all, have followed the example of the Greens and Plaid Cymru...
Labour fared badly - only just keeping their deposit. A Welsh labour spokesperson said: "We always knew this was going to be a difficult night for us, but we’re proud of our positive campaign in Brecon and Radnorshire. One thing is clear – voters have rejected Boris Johnson and his divisive, out-of-touch UK Tory Government. We’ll continue to hold them to account..." If rejecting Boris Johnson was Labour's priority, then Labour's approach to the by-election, however positive, was baffling. Certainly the drop in the labour vote helped Jane Dodds, but whether this was tactical voting for a more general change of heart towards Labour is difficult to say.
UKIP finished in last place with a derisory 242 votes - and behind the Official Monster Raving Loony Party's Lady Lily the Pink. I'll let that fact speak for itself.
So, congratulations to Jane Dodds and everyone who played a role in the superb campaign. The new MP's objectives are obvious from her acceptance speech: "My very first act as your new MP when I get to Westminster will be to find Mr Boris Johnson... and tell him to stop playing with the future of our community and rule out a no-deal Brexit."
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