What did the English local elections tell us?

It was election day in parts of England on Tuesday, with 23 councils holding local elections. There were also six mayoral elections and a parliamentary by-election in Runcorn and Helsby.

The most obvious and unremarkable thing about all of these elections is that we didn't really learn anything new.

Reform winning in Runcorn and Helsby by just six votes underlines the fact that every vote counts, but I don't think anyone was particularly surprised that Reform were triumphant. It was closer than I thought it would be. The party of government defending a seat - even a supposedly "safe" one - at a time when it is seen as uninspiring, insipid and lacking in vision is difficult enough; to to this in the aftermath of the previous MP being forced to resign after physically assaulting a constituent was always going to be a challenge. Areas such as this will always be fertile territory for Reform if Labour is perceived - with some justification - as being out of touch with the electorate.

Of course, most news outlets are leading with Reform's successes. That is, apparently, the big story. But should it be?  One new MP, two mayors, 677 councillors and control of 10 councils is not to be sniffed at. It shows that opinion polling was pretty sound and that Reform are to be taken seriously. But was it a huge surprise? I don't think so, and I believe that the real story here isn't so much Reform's significant gains as one of the key reasons behind it.

In the aftermath of that success, we have seen Nigel Farage and Andrea Jenkyns (and others) already seeking to emulate Donald Trump in their pronouncements and rhetoric. Seeing the latter announce that she intended to sack Lincolnshire County Council's diversity officer without checking that they actually employed one suggests they're not going to let facts get in the way of their narrative but, more seriously, it points to a method and style, as well as a particular set of priorities. Reform are signalling that this is how they will to go about their business, and that is of much more significance than the electoral data. The initial indications from Reform's leading personnel are that Trumpism has arrived in England, 

Is the story of the night the impressive gains for The Liberal Democrats and Greens? If only it were - although it is fair to point out that the Lib Dems has a terrific night and won 370 council contests, a net gain of 163. That includes gaining control of three councils: Shropshire, Oxfordshire and Cambridgeshire. We won seats in areas where Lib Dems have not done well in many years. All in all, it was a good performance and it represents significant progress for our party. Similarly, the Greens continue to make strides forward in local elections, this time with a net gain of 44. No doubt they will be fairly happy with that.

There has been a fair bit of commentary focusing on Labour's troubles. This is understandable given Labour is the party of government that is seemingly determined to squander the goodwill that helped it win a huge majority in a general election not even a year ago. However, it should be noted that these local elections were not in areas where Labour normally does well. It lost control of one council - Doncaster City - but did not have strong representation on most of the other councils up for election. As such I wouldn't want to present this set of results as overly damaging for Labour, although the heavy losses in Doncaster don't bode well. Defending 285 seats, Labour won 98 council seats on the night - a poor result but the real test will be when more traditionally Labour councils are up for election in 2026. Tellingly, however, the wider election results show that Labour isn't picking up votes from the Conservatives as some predicted; without a change of direction, next year's elections will be painful for Labour. 

More positively for Labour, despite the terrible results for Doncaster City Council, Ros Jones was re-elected as mayor of Doncaster, holding off a challenge from Reform's Alexander Jones. There are two obvious lessons here. Firstly, where Labour has a well-respected local incumbent who isn't afraid to be critical of aspects of government policy, they have a good chance of success; secondly, when the Conservative vote holds up reasonably well it presents a problem for Reform. The Tories' Nick Fletcher secured 26% of the vote, only 2.2% down on the 2021 result.

Labour also won the mayoral contests in North Tyneside and West of England, both of which I expected them to lose. With both previous Labour mayors, Dan Norris and Norma Redfearn, stepping down there was no incumbency factor in play as in Doncaster. Holding off a strong challenge in West of England from both Reform's Arron Banks and the Greens' Mary Page will give Labour something to cheer about. 

So Labour are struggling, but that's not the big story. The real story here is that the Conservatives - who, lest we forget, are the official opposition to a deeply unpopular government - were annihilated. They won 319 seats, but that figure represents a net loss of 674, mostly in areas in which their party usually does well. The Conservatives lost control of all 16 councils they previously held and were virtually wiped out in their former stronghold of Kent. Kent County Council is one of those councils that has been Conservative-controlled for decades - even in the bad days of 1997 - but this week the Tory group was reduced from 57 councillors to five. Reform took 57 seats in Kent, with the Lib Dems winning 12 councillors to become the second largest party. 

This is stunning. The symbolic significance of losing so spectacularly in Kent cannot be understated: But this was replicated across the country, in Staffordshire (-46), Derbyshire (-33), Lincolnshire (-40), North Northamptonshire (-37) and West Northamptonshire (-35). The Conservative Party has simply eaten itself and even in its historic Tory heartlands it is being destroyed by Reform. This has not happened before in places like Kent and Staffordshire - even when times were challenging, they avoided such comprehensive defeats. Even in areas where Reform performed relatively poorly - and there were some! - there was little comfort for the Conservatives: in Oxfordshire the Lib Dems took control as the Tories slipped into third place (Reform winning just one councillor) while they lost heavily to the Lib Dems in Shropshire, Wiltshire and Gloucestershire. A few days ago the Conservatives were the largest party on Gloucestershire County Council; they are now fourth behind the Lib Dems, Reform and the Greens. 

The only glimmer of hope for the Conservatives was the mayoral victory in Peterborough. Paul Bristow, the former Peterborough MP, won reasonably comfortably in the final analysis. But overall this is a devastating set of results for the Conservatives and Kemi Badenoch. Not only have they been unable to capitalise on Labour's troubles, they are clearly in crisis. To say that the future looks bleak is to fail to do justice to how hopeless their situation has become. 

While these elections cast some light on Labour's current predicament,the real story is that we are witnessing the death of the Conservative Party. It is disappointing that few in the media seem to have noticed.