My predictions for 2025

It’s 31st December – which of course means it’s time for me to make a few predictions for the coming year.

It’s interesting to look over last year’s predictions. My cautious optimism that the Lib Dems would take around 25 seats in the General Election was clearly far too cautious, and while we did win all of the constituencies I said we would we did so much better than I dared imagine. However, my prediction that the election result would be hugely disproportionate with Labour “picking up well over 400 seats with 42% of the vote” was more accurate - in the event they got the same result with around 34% of the vote share.

I was clearly absolutely spot-on when I said that “Rishi Sunak’s ineffective leadership will see the Conservatives faring even worse in a General Election than they did in 1997, taking less than 30% for the first time since the emergence of party politics.” All of the Conservative MPs I predicted to lose their seats did - with the unfortunate exceptions of Esther McVey and Lee Anderson, whose defection I hadn’t anticipated. I predicted Sadiq Khan would win the London mayoral election, although that outcome was inevitable from the moment the Conservatives announced Susan Hall as their candidate. 

What else did I get right? Well, the result of the Wellingborough by-election for a start. I also correctly predicted Humza Yousaf would resign as First Minister and that the SNP would have a difficult General Election in which they would lose half of their seats (they actually fared even worse). I am relieved to have been proved wrong in my forecast that Mr Yousaf would be succeeded by Kate Forbes. I saw Douglas Ross stepping down as leader of the Scottish Conservatives.  I think my prediction in relation to the Belgian election and the difficulties in negotiating a new power-sharing detail have been proved entirely correct. Similarly, I have sadly been proved right in relation to the world’s indifference to the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh.

In sport, I correctly foresaw Celtic, Dundee United, Falkirk, Stenhousemuir, Leicester City, Portsmouth, Rangers women and Chelsea women winning their respective leagues. I also predicted a good Olympics for Team GB, although they finished seventh in the medal table rather than fourth. 

Clearly not all of my predictions were so accurate. What did I get wrong? Well, I didn’t see Donald Trump winning the Republican nomination and went so far as to predict a Democratic victory. I thought that Suella Braverman would become the next Conservative Party leader, while I also speculated that progress would be made in Israel-Palestine. I didn’t foresee Reform taking any parliamentary seats in the General Election, and saw Scotland doing moderately well at the Euros (I know, I really should know better). I was clearly wrong when I suggested that “Mrs Brown’s Boys will surprise TV audiences when it broadcasts a genuinely funny episode”.

So, what do I see happening in 2025? 

POLITICS

The Labour Party

Labour is having a difficult time, and much of it is of their own making. Having won a landslide in the General Election largely as a result of the Conservatives’ predicament, Labour surprisingly has been content simply to be the anti-Tory party rather than put forward its own ambitious plans or a vision for the future that might actually resonate with voters. Instead, we have seen a bizarre budget with unexpected and unnecessary announcements, dismissing previous commitments to pensioners and doing a u-turn in relation to compensation for WASPI women - the kind of things that actually alienate voters. Turning Nigel Farage into the Farmers’ Champion is arguably Labour’s most significant achievement to date. 

Expect more of the same from Labour – poor communication, the absence of a coherent policy direction and a lack of coherent strategy in dealing with the media. 

After disappointing local election results, expect Labour to seek to combat Reform by attempting to echo Reform’s messages. The strategy won’t work and will only serve to make Labour appear unauthentic and desperate. 

Rachel Reeves, who has been groomed to be Chancellor for over a decade, will be increasingly seen as a liability, especially after the government’s Spending Review. It will become increasingly obvious that the ambition for the UK to have the highest sustained economic growth within the G7 is nothing more than wishful thinking. The Prime Minister will eventually give way to pressure, both internal and external, and replace Reeves later in the year. 

Labour will constantly be on the defensive and will spend much of 2025 at war with itself. Fortunately for the party, it will be able to survive this because the main opposition party will be in a similar position. 

One key success for Labour will be on immigration figures, which even Nigel Farage will be forced to concede are “moving in the right direction”. 

The Conservative Party

Kemi Badenoch is trying her best – but as time progresses it will become painfully obvious that her best isn’t good enough.

With both Labour and the Conservatives fearing the rise of Reform, expect both to use the language of Reform and echoing their sentiments. Badenoch will do better than Starmer in this respect,  exploiting grievances and trying to fuel culture wars, but ultimately these tactics only play into Reform’s hands. The Conservatives will be responding to Nigel Farage rather than leading the political conversation. They will also be hampered by the leader not having embraced a clear policy platform.

The Conservatives will make little progress in the local elections, losing a fair number of seats. Questions will begin to be asked about Badenoch’s leadership, especially when the Tories lose a by-election they really should win. She will survive the year, mainly because there is no-one who wants the job other than Robert Jenrick. 

The Liberal Democrats

It will be a good year for the Lib Dems – but not a sensational one. The party will fare well in the local elections, mainly as a repository for votes from electors unconvinced by Labour and the Conservatives. An increased level of participation from Reform will help the Liberal Democrats in many places as Nigel Farage’s party makes serious inroads in vote share without winning a huge number of seats.

There won’t be a huge number of parliamentary by-elections, but the Lib Dems will gain one from Labour (in a seat that had formerly been safe Conservative) and will do surprisingly well in another.

With 72 MPs, the Lib Dems should have more opportunities than ever to get their message out. Unfortunately, sections of the media will still feel inclined to ignore them. This won’t stop Ed Davey from “making a splash” as he goes speedboat racing during local election campaigning.

The Scottish National Party

It will be a year of relative stability for the SNP, after the turmoil of recent years – although the probe into party finances remains very much in the background. John Swinney has steadied the ship and is being aided by Labour’s performance at Westminster. 

International

The German Federal Election will be a disaster for Olaf Scholz and the SPD, which will finish in a poor third place. Friedrich Merz will become the new Chancellor as the CDU will emerge as the largest party but the news headlines will focus on Alternative für Deutschland, which will finish in second place (albeit some distance behind). Despite difficulties in forming a new government, the AfD will not be invited to become coalition partners.

The Polish presidential  election looks set to be very interesting. Warsaw mayor Rafał Trzaskowski, who won 49% of the vote in the run-off in 2020, is the main challenger to the PiS’s Karol Nawrocki. Nawrocki is not your typical politician; a former historian and director of the Second World War Museum, he is a committed anti-Communist who stresses the importance of patriotism and national identity. His selection speaks volumes about the PiS’s current messaging, but even his respectability is likely to be insufficient to beat moderniser Trzaskowski. 

The first round of the rescheduled Romanian presidential elections will have a near-identical outcome to the annulled vote of 24th November. An obvious lesson is that re-running an election, even when there are genuine concerns of interference, only serves to benefit candidates who claim that their opponents are conspiring to take away their democratically-earned victory. Against this backdrop, and criticism of incumbent Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu for being slow to respond to alleged interference, the run-off will be between independent Călin Georgescu and Elena Lasconi of the USR (Save Romania Union; liberal party). Lasconi will win reasonably comfortably. 

There will be a glimmer of hope for the situation in Israel-Palestine when a ceasefire is agreed.  Not so in Ukraine, where the destructive stalemate will continue. Those like Donald Trump, who promise to bring the conflict to an end, appear to wish to do so in terms that are broadly favourable to Russia. While Volodymyr Zelenskyy would like a diplomatic resolution, it is difficult to see this happening unless Trump takes a different approach.  

In Canada’ Justin Trudeau’s Liberals will fall to a crushing defeat by the Conservative Party. The New Democratic Party will fare well, increasing their seats significantly as they finish in a strong third place.

In the US, Trump’s tariffs policy will backfire spectacularly when Canada cuts off energy supplies in retaliation. Other policy commitments will unravel as his allies go to war with each other. The principal beneficiary will be Elon Musk, who will part company at an opportune moment and spend the rest of Trump’s term actively undermining him. 

Assad may be gone in Syria – but don’t imagine that will in and of itself improve the situation for the majority of Syrians. The Syrian opposition is far from united and while Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) would like its rival factions to disarm they have limited scope for bringing this outcome about. The conflict hasn‘t ended and I fully expect Israel to make interventions to protect its own interests there, especially in the south of the country. 

FOOTBALL

Aberdeen promised to make life interesting with a sensational run at the beginning of the season, but it now seems inevitable that Celtic will win the Scottish Premiership again. I don’t think anyone other than the most optimistic Rangers supporters would disagree. Falkirk, Arbroath and East Fife will win their respective leagues; Forfar Athletic will finish bottom of League Two but will win the play-off. 

There will be a return to “normality” in the Scottish Women’s Premier League with Glasgow City finishing top. 

I don’t want to pre-empt the outcome of the hearing into Manchester City’s 115 alleged breaches of financial regulations, but there will be a significant fall-out and Pep Guardiola will resign at the end of a disappointing season. 

I can’t see anyone catching Liverpool who look set to win their 20th title, although I wish Nottingham Forest luck. The winners of the Championship, League One and League Two will be Burnley, Birmingham City and Walsall respectively. The Women’s Super League will be won by Chelsea with a margin in excess of 15 points.

ELSEWHERE

The Terminally Ill Adults (End of Life) Bill – often referred to as “The Assisted Dying Bill” – will ultimately fail. This will be because, while many MPs are sympathetic to its broader aims, it will become obvious that there are significant flaws within the Bill especially in regards the potential for coercion. Defeat for the Bill won’t be the end of the conversation on “assisted dying”, however. 

Elon Musk won’t be donating anything to Reform. He’ll be too busy arguing with those he this week pledged to go to war with – people he terms “racists” for their anti-immigration stance. As he ignites a civil war among Trump supporters he will find less time to indulge his hobbies of goading the Labour Party and encouraging the same kinds of racists in places like Germany. As Musk takes on the likes of Steve Bannon and Laura Loomer, Trump will inevitably side with the SpaceX founder (he knows the value of a billionaire businessman). Later in the year, reminiscent of Dominic Cummings, Musk will very publicly break-up with both Trump and the GOP and will be happy to offload his grievances to anyone who wishes to listen. 

The Church of England will appoint the current Bishop of Dover as its next Archbishop of Canterbury. She will be the first woman to hold this position. Sadly, this will have less to do with the Church of England’s attitudes towards gender and racial equality than the sad fact that there is no other candidate with the ability to address the ongoing safeguarding scandal. 

As public appetite for AI grows, it will become increasingly difficult to distinguish between the real and the artificial; ironically, many business and educational establishments will seek to adopt AI systems that help them to identify AI. AI-generated media is going to become even more controversial in 2025 and will be the cause of a number of high-profile legal cases. Expect legislation to finally, and belatedly, catch up with reality and introduce new legal obligations for platforms. 

The 2025 Formula 1 season will be one of the most competitive for many years but Lando Norris’s time has come and he will be crowned champion. The usual suspects will complain about being “cancelled” despite having disproportionately loud voices.

IN LIGHTER VEIN

There will be multiple scandals in Westminster. A Labour minister will resign over something silly posted on X, or maybe it is just for posting on X. A Conservative MP will be forced to apologise for an extra-marital relationship, although no-one outside of his own parliamentary party seems to care very much. A Lib Dem MP will make headlines when an outraged Daily Mail publishes a picture of him enjoying a song at Glee Club. 

Nigel Farage will be awarded an MBE for his services to BBC Question Time.

Wizzard’s I Wish It Could Be Christmas Everyday will finally be the Christmas number 1 after a radio campaign urges people to download the 1973 classic in recognition of Roy Wood’s outstanding career. In the number 2 spot will be a truly awful combination of There’s No-one Quite Like Grandma and Mary’s Boy Child by a school choir, featuring Ed Davey. 

Liz Truss will attempt a political comeback and will succeed in being selected as the Conservative candidate in a parliamentary by-election. She will finish in 5th place, behind Labour, Reform, the Lib Dems and a candidate for a newly-created party, Lettuce Have Peace. The LHP candidate will keep their deposit and tell BBC News “I know I may be seen as a novelty candidate, but I did have some serious aims. We need to send a message to our politicians to work harder to find peaceful solutions to the world’s problems… and also that Liz Truss is a national embarrassment.”

Boris Johnson, who was announced as a GB News presenter in late 2023 but has yet to present a show, will finally be confirmed as its new Culture Spot host from June 2025. This will involve the former Prime Minister waffling about British identity, being selective about the nation’s history and speaking to a variety of right-wing and generally undistinguished guests about how “wokery” is destroying the entertainment business.  

After an election in April in which, once again, a majority of the returned parliamentarians are separatists, Greenland will demand independence from Denmark. Donald Trump will express outrage.

Great strides forward for journalism will be made in 2025. The Daily Express will contain an editorial hitting out at political conspiracy theories, while The Daily Mail will publish a story about the Liberal Democrats that is reasonably fair-minded and truthful.