Yousaf resigns - what next?

Photo: BBC

No-one can deny that Scottish politics has been interesting in the last week or so.

As Harold Wilson once remarked, "a week in politics is a long time". A lot has changed in that time. So much so that I intended to write a very different blogpost this morning considering the options open to Humza Yousaf - but his sudden resignation as SNP leader put paid to that idea.

Fundamentally, the situation was created by the First Minister overreaching himself in terminating the Bute House Agreement. It's difficult to see why he felt he needed to do this when it may have been easier to allow the Greens to make their own decision about the future of the relationship. I also don't understand why Mr Yousaf failed to foresee the inevitable political consequences and that his survival would become dependent on conditional support from the likes of Alba and Ash Regan, something he is clearly unwilling to countenance. Basic arithmetic should have told him this exercise was fraught with danger. 

No doubt the First Minister wanted to project an image of a decisive leader who had the conviction to make tough decisions. But there's "tough" and there's downright risky. Perhaps he could have ended the Bute House Agreement in such a way that didn't provoke the Greens to anger and showed more respect for the partnership, but that would have required a more skilful political operator than Mr Yousaf - something he alluded to in his statement today when he admitted he should have managed it differently and underestimated the upset he caused. 

Motions of no-confidence in both the First Minister and his government have been submitted by the Conservatives and Labour respectively. They should come as no surprise. While Douglas Ross is triumphantly celebrating the resignation as a major victory for his party - "We saw off Nicola Sturgeon and now Humza Yousaf", he bragged on twitter/X - the person most responsible for the downfall of Humza Yousaf is Humza Yousaf. As The Herald's Brian Taylor commented, Mr Yousaf has "lost confidence in himself".

Some of us outwith the SNP were more relieved than anything else when he narrowly defeated Kate Forbes to become SNP leader. However, there were widespread concerns that he would prove to be an ineffective First Minister and that has proved to be the case. That is obviously bad for the SNP, but also for Holyrood and for Scotland.

So, what happens next? 

The Greens are talking about the need for "stability" and "trust", as well they might. They have to be careful what they wish for, however, as the next First Minister may take a very different line on the policy areas they care about most deeply such as climate strategy.

Much discussion is already focused on who Mr Yousaf's likely replacement will be. 

Kate Forbes is understandably being mentioned as a frontrunner. But, if we cast out minds back to last year's leadership contest, it was a highly personalised, toxic and highlighted divisions that had largely been hidden from public view. Many of us - including SNP members - were surprised than many other senior SNP MSPs ruled themselves out of running very early on. Perhaps now, in a very different political context, they could be persuaded that it is in the interests of the party and Scotland to put themselves forward and avoid a repeat last year's damaging contest.

John Swinney is being spoken of in this context. In many respects he is yesterday's man. But he is well-respected across the political spectrum, has decades of experience including a stint as party leader, and is generally seen as a safe pair of hands. Is there anyone better placed to bring about the much-needed stability? Probably not, but is he what either Scotland needs or what the SNP membership wants?

Other potential candidates include Angus Robertson or Neil Gray. Ultimately much will depend on who is willing to stand for the leadership and what kind of leader SNP members want. 

But before that, it's worth pointing out that this is a very different situation to when Nicola Sturgeon resigned just over a year ago. As is often the case, there was a staged process with the resignation not taking effect until after her successor was elected. Mr Yousaf has said he will continue to serve as First Minister until a replacement is elected in order to assure a smooth transition, but with no-confidence votes in the pipeline things may not run as smoothly as he hopes.

In the last few days Mr Yousaf talked about the need for a "reset". He's certainly achieved that. While the news media will inevitably focus on the individuals most likely to become the next First Minister, I am more interested in what this means for the SNP and Scottish politics more widely. This is a crucial moment. The SNP is at a crossroads. How will it be "reset"? Will its members opt for social conservatism and vote for Kate Forbes? How will it heal the painfully obvious divisions within its own camp? How does the SNP see itself and what are its priorities? Can any of the names being touted as likely replacements rejuvenate the party? Does it know how to adjust to minority government, especially without a dominant leader in the Salmond/Sturgeon mould? 

What will this mean for Scotland's opposition parties? How will they - and voters - respond? With momentum already shifting towards Labour, can they capitalise on the opportunities presented to them here by a split and tired party of government? How can opposition parties turn short-term advantages into longer-term strategies?

In his resignation statement Mr Yousaf called out "toxic culture wars", praised multiculturalism and warned about the dangers of populism and "the rights and voices of people who are not heard". He talked about the need to tackle poverty and prejudice, and insisted he will continue to stand for minority rights. Mr Yousaf clearly is passionate about such things, which only serves to make his self-inflicted downfall more tragic. 

Where I disagreed with Mr Yousaf was when he said "independence feels frustratingly close" and that his successor "will lead us over the finish line". While levels of support for independence are strong, there seems to be no clear political vision as to how to achieve that - it's also hard to be on the front foot in regards independence when focused on other pressures. With the SNP embezzlement probe ongoing, things aren't going to get any easier for whoever the next First Minister is.

Mr Yousaf is a decent man and no-one watching his heartfelt resignation speech could deny that. It's also true that he took on the leadership at a very difficult time and inherited a mess. But he has, sadly, proved a failure as First Minister. He compromised his own credibility and paid the inevitable price.

I may be a Liberal Democrat but I see no reason for rejoicing in the way that Douglas Ross has.  I see little to celebrate. Indeed, there is every reason to be concerned about what may happen next - especially in regards the SNP's leadership.