Who will replace Liz Truss as Prime Minister?
So who are the likely candidates? Who will be the next person to attempt the near-impossible task of leading the Conservative party while simultaneously running the country?
Here's my review of some of the likely - and one or two unlikely - successors to Liz Truss.
Age: 58
What would he bring? Experience of actually being Prime Minister, which is helpful. He also has experience of resigning, which may be even more helpful. He is popular among party members and some fiercely loyal MPs. Johnson is no ideologue and is unlikely to oversee a disastrous budget. And let's be honest, he knows how to have a party!
Should we be worried? Yes. He's Boris Johnson. His supporters seem blind to the fact that he, more than anyone else, is responsible for the current political situation. If Johnson returns for a second spell as PM, just weeks after being ousted, there is a real danger that the Conservatives will turn into the UK equivalent of the GOP.
Age: 42
What would she bring? Novelty, a fair bit of noise and a political ideology that is hard to distinguish from the likes of Suella Braverman (see below). Relatively inexperienced politically, having been first elected as an MP in 2019, Badenoch is seen by many as the future of the Conservative Party. Popular with right wingers and those who self-identify as "anti-woke", she is a self-appointed warrior against "identity politics". During the last leadership election she targetted the government's Net Zero strategy as "ill-considered", arguing that it was disadvantaging industry
Should we be worried? Yes. Unless, of course, you want a culture warrior as Prime Minister.
What would she bring? An experienced minister and a very good communicator, Mordaunt came very close to beating Truss into second place during the last leadership election. She is admired by many within and outwith the party as someone who is straight-talking and charismatic. She is undeniably ambitious and, as she showed this week when she responded to an urgent question from Labour in the absence of the Prime Minister, possesses a Machiavellian streak. Tactically far more astute that her immediate predecessors, she is more palatable to non-Tories than many other prospective candidates. She is seen as socially liberal, but only by Conservative standards. Mordaunt has tied herself in knots over transgender self-identification, having previously openly supported self-ID.
Should we be worried? Yes. While an obvious asset to her party, it's not entirely clear what policy direction she would pursue if Prime Minister. Early indications in the last leadership contest were that she wanted to make ambitious tax cuts, although the failure of Kwarteng's mini-budget may have resulted in a rethink. Her willingness to move away from previously well-articulated positons (e.g. self ID) brings into question her forthrightness and convictions. She's also not averse to making up false "truths": during the EU referendum campaign Mordaunt made misleading claims that the UK could not prevent Turkey joining the EU.
Name: Mark Francois
Age: 57
What would he bring? Comedy value
Should we be worried? If he was elected PM, very. But the chances of that are, fortunately, so remote as to be astronomical.
What would he bring? Many would argue that Hunt would bring some kind of stability as a "safe pair of hands". Hunt certainly has extensive ministerial experience, but his time as Health Secretary was overshadowed by allegations that he played fast and loose with scientific data for political purposes. He also caused controversy as Culture Secretary when he suggested that football hooliganism played a significant role in the deaths of 96 at Hillsborough in 1989. Brought in as chancellor recently to avert further disaster, Hunt is unlikely to remain in that role once a new Prime Minister is in office. Hunt finished second to Johnson in the 2019 leadership contest, but a distant second - he is respected by some as a potential "unity candidate" but lacks any significant level of personal support among party members.
Should we be worried? He is less worrying than some of the other possible candidates, but his ministerial history gives reasons for concern. Unlikely to put himself forward for the top job.
Age: 42
What would he bring? Experience and a reputation for competence. Sunak would be the first UK Prime Minister of Asian heritage. He finished as runner-up to Liz Truss in the members' ballot only a few weeks ago and has the support of many of the parliamentary party. He would also bring some controversy with him - his resignation as chancellor precipitated Johnson's fall from power and this makes him unpalatable to many. He also was responsible for the Eat Out to Help Out scheme and his response to the "Cost of Living crisis" was seen by many to demonstrate how out of touch he was with ordinary people. The non-domiciled status of his wife also brought his personal life - and his tax liabilities - into sharp focus.
Should we be worried? He at least had the courage and good sense to call out Trussonomics during the last leadership campaign. On the plus side, he is unlikely to adopt a high-risk economic strategy or do anything to destablise the country. He is also unlikely to embroil himself in culture wars or identify himself with the kind of rhetoric espoused by Braverman and Badenoch. Whether he has the ability to effectively lead the Conservative Party is another matter entirely.
Age: 42
What would she bring? Dreams of deportations to Rwanda, threats to "tofu-eating wokerati" and an over-inflated view of her own abilities, judging by the letter announcing her resignation as Home Secretary earlier this week. Her greatest political achievement to date was in debunking the theory that there could not possibly be a more inhuman Home Secretary than Priti Patel. Understandably popular with the right-wing of the Conservative membership.
Should we be worried? Very. She's Kemi Badenoch on acid.
Name: Nadine Dorries
Age: 65
What would she bring? Incoherence and absurdity. Even more comedy value than Mark Francois.
Should we be worried? Not really. She's likely to throw herself into Boris Johnson's leadership campaign.
Age: 50
What would he bring? Experience of several (short-lived) ministerial roles. Barclay has the advantage of not being widely disliked. Uninspiring and unexciting, Barclay may in fact be the ideal "unity candidate" that some are looking for. His career to date has been controversy-free - a huge asset. As Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union, Barclay oversaw the UK's exit from the EU, which would give him some Brownie points among Conservative members.
Should we be worried? Despite having taken on many ministerial roles, he has seldom served for more than a few months. His relative experience counts against him. It's very difficult to know what his policy objectives would be.
Age: 55
What would he bring? Experience of chairing the powerful 1922 Committee. Brady has been one of the most powerful men in the country for the last twelve and a half years (barring a few months in 2019 when he resigned to consider a leadership bid). Should he wish to run this time around he would have the advantage of being perceived as having the necessary leadership skills and the required gravitas.
Should we be worried? No. Sir Graham Brady is not stupid. He would not exchange the power he has currently to inherit the mess created by May, Johnson and Truss.
Age: 52
What would he bring? Experience of short-lived stints as Chancellor of the Exchequer, Health Secretary and Home Secretary. He also has experience of making sensational resignation statements. One-time remainer who later championed the "hardest" possible Brexit, "The Saj" has never been far from controversy.
Should we be worried? Two previous failed leadership bids suggest not.
Age: circa 15
What would he bring? Larry knows his way around Downing Street and has already seen off four Prime Ministers. He is well acquainted with cabinet ministers, civil servants and the media. On the down side, he has been criticised for "lacking the killer instinct" and his interactions with other animals - but he is generally appreciated by the British public. It is not known what his political views are but he did serve as Chief Mouser during the coalition years so may be open to collaboration across the political spectrum.
Should we be worried? Erm, no.
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